Can Arabs Be Democrats?
- Информация о материале
- Автор: Barry Rubin
December 9, 2005
http://www.meforum.org/article/876
Barry Rubin is the editor of the Middle Eastern Review of International
Affairs and the Director of the Interdisciplinary Center at the Global
Research in International Affairs in Israel. He is currently a visiting
professor at American University, in Washington, DC. A columnist for the
Jerusalem Post, his articles have appeared in the New York Times, Washington
Post, Foreign Affairs, Middle East Quarterly, and numerous other publications.
Mr. Rubin has appeared on Nightline, Face the Nation, Larry King Live,
CNN, Fox News, and MSNBC.
The issue of democracy in the Middle East has outsized importance for
the region and for the United States; it will occupy our generation and
perhaps the next.
There is a paradox in the Middle East. Incompetent, corrupt governments
have failed to develop their own societies, to provide the context for
a higher standard of living, and to defeat Israel. Their countries trail
the entire world (save sub-Saharan Africa) in most statistics. But these
same bad governments have remained in power for more than fifty years and
remain entrenched. How do they do this? By systematically redesigning their
societies so as to remain in power.
Nearly all institutions exist to insure regime protection. For example,
military officers are promoted on the basis of loyalty not competence,
they are moved around frequently, policed by paramilitaries, and kept away
from weapons systems that could be turned against their political masters.
Likewise, the economy is dominated by government industries and by select
families loyal to the regime.
Even elements of civil society that elsewhere in the world counterbalance
governments have been co-opted in the Middle East. The press is rigidly
controlled. Genuine human rights organizations are outlawed and replaced
by fraudulent entities loyal to the regime. Labor unions are small and
weak. Businessmen have little choice but to keep silent to preserve government
contracts and to work with government industries and the oligarchic families.
The dominant ideologies (Arab nationalism, populism, Islamism), co-opt
intellectuals and students for by promoting these ideologies they too become
part of the problem.
Passionate issues overwhelm normal thinking. Perceived threats from
Israel, the United States, and the West as a whole to Arab values and Islam
take priority over all other issues. Waging an eternal battle against these
threats means indefinitely postponing development. The Arab-Israeli conflict
in particular is too valuable for regimes; deprived of it they might not
stand.
Islamist movements, with their threat to unleash chaos and bloodshed,
offer regimes a great benefit,. In Algeria, to stave off an Islamist electoral
win, the military staged a coup that kept it in power. Fearful of an Islamist
future, roughly 60% of Arab populations supporting their regime, perhaps
20-30% backing the Islamists, and only 5% supporting liberal democrats.
The tiny proportion of liberal reformers and democrats means that it will
be a long time they emerge on top.
Although all democratic traditions take a long time to develop, decades
or even centuries, with reversals to be expected, the Middle East is falling
further behind. Without the institutions of civil society, such as liberal
universities, news outlets, and political parties, the number of democratic
reformers builds very slowly. Even the easiest ideas, such as women's rights,
face opposition from the Islamic leadership and much of the general population.
On harder questions such as terrorism, liberals are reduced to distinguishing
between "good" and "bad" terrorism (good if directed at Israel, bad if
directed at Muslims).
Liberals are also have few allies. In Kuwait the regime itself has
been open to reform, but elsewhere, most notably Egypt, their only potential
allies versus the power holders are Islamists.
Regimes, for their part, seem to operate on the premise that Westerners
are stupid. They expect the West to accept talk as sufficient change. One
result is that the Middle East is changing the West's thinking in certain
contexts, rather than the reverse. For a prime example, note how Middle
East studies in the United States has become not unlike what is taught
at the University of Damascus.
American policy toward the Middle East is basically correct: maintain
pressure on regimes and help reformers where possible. The West should
broadly encourage hopeful developments. In the Persian Gulf region, countries
such as Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates are becoming pragmatic thanks
to the influence of their business communities. Monarchies in Morocco and
Jordan show progressive tendencies, and in Lebanon a popular revolution
has largely expelled Syria's occupation. Communal blocks negotiating over
power could be successful in Iraq. In Iran, a majority wants liberal democracy
and free elections, though the reformers accomplished next to nothing during
their years in power. Only fear of savage repression and mass murder keeps
the populace in line with the regime.
You may freely forward this information, but on condition that you send
the text as an integral whole along with complete information about its
author, date, and source.
Russian version
An introduction to MAOF
Haim Goldman
Haim Goldman
Dear Friends,
Would you believe that the undersigned has anything in common with
-- Professor Victor Davis Hanson (Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University),
-- Dr Charles Krauthammer, (Washington Post, Time, The Weekly Standard),
-- Caroline Glick (Deputy Managing Editor of the Jerusalem Post),
-- Jonathan Tobin (Executive Editor of the Philadelphia Jewish Exponent).
Amazingly, the editors of the MAOF website decided that the missives of the undersigned are worthy of translation and posting along the articles written by these distinguished authors.
The first letter was published without the consent of the undersigned.
However, after thorough examination of the laudable attitude of MAOF and of the excellent contents of the website, the undersigned had most graciously granted his permission for publication of his missives in both English and Russian.
“Analytical Group MAOF” [1] is an organisation founded about ten years ago by Russian-speaking Jewish intellectuals. The attitude of MAOF is definitely pro-Zionist -- unambiguously and unapologetically.
One of MAOF’s primary purposes is providing information and analysis about Middle-Eastern and world affairs as well as about Israel’s history, values and dilemmas. In addition to extensive publication activity in various media, MAOF also organises excursions and seminars. While the vast majority of the contents of the MAOF website is in Russian, texts originally written in English are provided in the original [2] as well as in Russian.
There are arguably about 250 millions of Russian-speakers worldwide and many of them do not read English. The indisputable motivation for the author’s permission was to grant those millions of disadvantaged people the grand benefit of reading the author’s ruminations. If the author is ever maliciously accused that his tacit motivation for authorising the publication was his craving to be listed along with the above-mentioned distinguished writers, his plea will definitely be “nolo contendere”.
The editors of MAOF expressed their gratitude by granting the undersigned a privilege that no other author got – the opportunity to review and correct the Russian translation before publication. The original letters of the undersigned are at [3] and their Russian version is at [4]. At of today, only two letters are posted but several other letters are pending translation.
You are kindly ENCOURAGED TO RECOMMEND the MAOF website to your friends and colleagues worldwide, particularly those who speak Russian. Those who do not enjoy the benefit of proficiency in the exquisite Russian language can find many thought-provoking and inspiring articles about Middle-Eastern and world affairs in the English section [2].
Sincerely,
Haim Goldman
28.10.2006
REFERENCES:
[1] http://maof.rjews.net
[2] section.php3? sid=37&num=25
[3] authorg.php3? id=2107&type=a
[4] authorg.php3? id=2166&type=a