Although many persist in denying it, I continue to believe that what September 11, 2001 did was to plunge us headlong into nothing less than another world war. I call this new war World War IV, because I also believe that what is generally known as the cold war was actually World War III, and that this one bears a closer resemblance to that great conflict than it does to World War II. Like the cold war, as the military historian Eliot Cohen was the first to recognize, the one we are now in has ideological roots, pitting us against Islamofascism, yet another mutation of the totalitarian disease we defeated first in the shape of Nazism and fascism and then in the shape of Communism; it is global in scope; it is being fought with a variety of weapons, not all of them military; and it is likely to go on for decades.
What follows from this way of looking at the last five years is that the military campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq cannot be understood if they are regarded as self-contained wars in their own right. Instead we have to see them as fronts or theaters that have been opened up in the early stages of a protracted global struggle. The same thing is true of Iran. As the currently main center of the Islamofascist ideology against which we have been fighting since 9/11, and as (according to the State Department’s latest annual report on the subject) the main sponsor of the terrorism that is Islamofascism’s weapon of choice, Iran too is a front in World War IV. Moreover, its effort to build a nuclear arsenal makes it the potentially most dangerous one of all.
The Iranians, of course, never cease denying that they intend to build a nuclear arsenal, and yet in the same breath they openly tell us what they intend to do with it. Their first priority, as repeatedly and unequivocally announced by their president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is to “wipe Israel off the map”—a feat that could not be accomplished by conventional weapons alone.
But Ahmadinejad’s ambitions are not confined to the destruction of Israel. He also wishes to dominate the greater Middle East, and thereby to control the oilfields of the region and the flow of oil out of it through the Persian Gulf. If he acquired a nuclear capability, he would not even have to use it in order to put all this within his reach. Intimidation and blackmail by themselves would do the trick.
Nor are Ahmadinejad’s ambitions merely regional in scope. He has a larger dream of extending the power and influence of Islam throughout Europe, and this too he hopes to accomplish by playing on the fear that resistance to Iran would lead to a nuclear war. And then, finally, comes the largest dream of all: what Ahmadinejad does not shrink from describing as “a world without America.” Demented though he may be, I doubt that Ahmadinejad is so crazy as to imagine that he could wipe America off the map even if he had nuclear weapons. But what he probably does envisage is a diminution of the American will to oppose him: that is, if not a world without America, he will settle, at least in the short run, for a world without much American influence.
Not surprisingly, the old American foreign-policy establishment and many others say that these dreams are nothing more than the fantasies of a madman. They also dismiss those who think otherwise as neoconservative alarmists trying to drag this country into another senseless war that is in the interest not of the United States but only of Israel. But the irony is that Ahmadinejad’s dreams are more realistic than the dismissal of those dreams as merely insane delusions. To understand why, an analogy with World War III may help.
_____________
At certain points in that earlier war, some of us feared that the Soviets
might seize control of the oil fields of the Middle East, and that the
West, faced with a choice between surrendering to their dominance or trying
to stop them at the risk of a nuclear exchange, would choose surrender.
In that case, we thought, the result would be what in those days went by
the name of Finlandization.
In Europe, where there were large Communist parties, Finlandization
would take the form of bringing these parties to power so that they could
establish “Red Vichy” regimes like the one already in place in Finland—regimes
whose subservience to the Soviet will in all things, domestic and foreign
alike, would make military occupation unnecessary and would therefore preserve
a minimal degree of national independence.
In the United States, where there was no Communist party to speak of,
we speculated that Finlandization would take a subtler form. In the realm
of foreign affairs, politicians and pundits would arise to celebrate the
arrival of a new era of peace and friendship in which the cold-war policy
of containment would be scrapped, thus giving the Soviets complete freedom
to expand without encountering any significant obstacles. And in the realm
of domestic affairs, Finlandization would mean that the only candidates
running for office with a prayer of being elected would be those who promised
to work toward a sociopolitical system more in harmony with the Soviet
model than the unjust capitalist plutocracy under which we had been living.
Of course, by the grace of God, the dissidents behind the Iron Curtain,
and Ronald Reagan, we won World War III and were therefore spared the depredations
that Finlandization would have brought. Alas, we are far from knowing what
the outcome of World War IV will be. But in the meantime, looking at Europe
today, we already see the unfolding of a process analogous to Finlandization:
it has been called, rightly, Islamization. Consider, for example, what
happened when, only a few weeks ago, the Iranians captured fifteen British
sailors and marines and held them hostage. Did the Royal Navy, which once
boasted that it ruled the waves, immediately retaliate against this blatant
act of aggression, or even threaten to do so unless the captives were immediately
released? Not by any stretch of the imagination. Indeed, using force was
the last thing in the world the British contemplated doing, as they made
sure to announce. Instead they relied on the “soft power” so beloved of
“sophisticated” Europeans and their American fellow travelers.
But then, as if this show of impotence were not humiliating enough,
the British were unable even to mobilize any of that soft power. The European
Union, of which they are a member, turned down their request to threaten
Iran with a freeze of imports. As for the UN, under whose very auspices
they were patrolling the international waters in which the sailors were
kidnapped, it once again showed its true colors by refusing even to condemn
the Iranians. The most the Security Council could bring itself to do was
to express “grave concern.” Meanwhile, a member of the British cabinet
was going the Security Council one better. While registering no objection
to propaganda pictures of the one woman hostage, who had been forced to
shed her uniform and dress for the cameras in Muslim clothing, Health Secretary
Patricia Hewitt pronounced it “deplorable” that she should have permitted
herself to be photographed with a cigarette in her mouth. “This,” said
Hewitt, “sends completely the wrong message to our young people.”
According to John Bolton, our former ambassador to the UN, the Iranians
were testing the British to see if there would be any price to pay for
committing what would once have been considered an act of war. Having received
his answer, Ahmadinejad could now reap the additional benefit of, as the
British commentator Daniel Johnson puts it, “posing as a benefactor” by
releasing the hostages, even while ordering more attacks in Iraq and even
while continuing to arm terrorist organizations, whether Shiite (Hizballah)
or Sunni (Hamas). For fanatical Shiites though Ahmadinejad and his ilk
assuredly are, they are obviously willing to set sectarian differences
aside when it comes to forging jihadist alliances against the infidels.
If, then, under present circumstances Ahmadinejad could bring about
the extraordinary degree of kowtowing that resulted from the kidnapping
of the British sailors, what might he not accomplish with a nuclear arsenal
behind him—nuclear bombs that could be fitted on missiles capable of reaching
Europe? As to such a capability, Robert G. Joseph, the U.S. Special Envoy
for Nuclear Non-Proliferation, tells us that Iran is “expanding what is
already the largest offensive missile force in the region. Moreover, it
is reported to be working closely with North Korea, the world’s number-one
missile proliferator, to develop even more capable ballistic missiles.”
This, Joseph goes on, is why “analysts agree that in the foreseeable future
Iran will be armed with medium- and long-range ballistic missiles,” and
it is also why “we could wake up one morning to find that Iran is holding
Berlin, Paris or London hostage to whatever its demands are then.”
_____________
As with Finlandization, Islamization extends to the domestic realm,
too. In one recent illustration of this process, as reported in the British
press, “schools in England are dropping the Holocaust from history lessons
to avoid offending Muslim pupils . . . whose beliefs include Holocaust
denial.” But this is an equal-opportunity capitulation, since the schools
are also eliminating lessons about the Crusades because “such lessons often
contradict what is taught in local mosques.”
But why single out England? If anything, much more, and worse, has
been going on in other European countries, including France, Germany, Italy,
Spain, Denmark, and the Netherlands. All of these countries have large
and growing Muslim populations demanding that their religious values and
sensibilities be accommodated at the expense of the traditional values
of the West, and even in some instances of the law. Yet rather than insisting
that, like all immigrant groups before them, they assimilate to Western
norms, almost all European politicians have been cravenly giving in to
the Muslims’ outrageous demands.
As in the realm of foreign affairs, if this much can be accomplished
under present circumstances, what might not be done if the process were
being backed by Iranian nuclear blackmail? Already some observers are warning
that by the end of the 21st century the whole of Europe will be transformed
into a place to which they give the name Eurabia. Whatever chance there
may still be of heading off this eventuality would surely be lessened by
the menacing shadow of an Iran armed with nuclear weapons, and only too
ready to put them into the hands of the terrorist groups to whom it is
even now supplying rockets and other explosive devices.
And the United States? As would have been the case with Finlandization,
we would experience a milder form of Islamization here at home. But not
in the area of foreign policy. Like the Europeans, confronted by Islamofascists
armed by Iran with nuclear weapons, we would become more and more hesitant
to risk resisting the emergence of a world shaped by their will and tailored
to their wishes. For even if Ahmadinejad did not yet have missiles with
a long enough range to hit the United States, he would certainly be able
to unleash a wave of nuclear terror against us. If he did, he would in
all likelihood act through proxies, for whom he would with characteristic
brazenness disclaim any responsibility even if the weapons used by the
terrorists were to bear telltale markings identifying them as of Iranian
origin. At the same time, the opponents of retaliation and other antiwar
forces would rush to point out that there was good reason to accept this
disclaimer and, markings or no markings (could they not have been forged?),
no really solid evidence to refute it.
In any event, in these same centers of opinion, such a scenario is
regarded as utter nonsense. In their view, none of the things it envisages
would follow even if Ahmadinejad should get the bomb, because the fear
of retaliation would deter him from attacking us just as it deterred the
Soviets in World War III. For our part, moreover, the knowledge that we
were safe from attack would preclude any danger of our falling into anything
like Islamization.
_____________
But listen to what Bernard Lewis, the greatest authority of our time
on the Islamic world, has to say in this context on the subject of deterrence:
MAD, mutual assured destruction, [was effective] right through the
cold war. Both sides had nuclear weapons. Neither side used them, because
both sides knew the other would retaliate in kind. This will not work with
a religious fanatic [like Ahmadinejad]. For him, mutual assured destruction
is not a deterrent, it is an inducement. We know already that [Iran’s leaders]
do not give a damn about killing their own people in great numbers. We
have seen it again and again. In the final scenario, and this applies all
the more strongly if they kill large numbers of their own people, they
are doing them a favor. They are giving them a quick free pass to heaven
and all its delights.
Nor are they inhibited by a love of country:
We do not worship Iran, we worship Allah. For patriotism is another
name for paganism. I say let this land [Iran] burn. I say let this land
go up in smoke, provided Islam emerges triumphant in the rest of the world.
These were the words of the Ayatollah Khomeini, who ruled Iran from
1979 to 1989, and there is no reason to suppose that his disciple Ahmadinejad
feels any differently.
Still less would deterrence work where Israel was concerned. For as
the Ayatollah Rafsanjani (who is supposedly a “pragmatic conservative”)
has declared:
If a day comes when the world of Islam is duly equipped with the arms
Israel has in possession. . . application of an atomic bomb would not leave
anything in Israel, but the same thing would just produce damages in the
Muslim world.
In other words, Israel would be destroyed in a nuclear exchange, but
Iran would survive.
In spite of all this, we keep hearing that all would be well if only
we agreed—in the currently fashionable lingo—to “engage” with Iran, and
that even if the worst came to the worst we could—to revert to the same
lingo—“live” with a nuclear Iran. It is when such things are being said
that, alongside the resemblance between now and World War III, a parallel
also becomes evident between now and the eve of World War II.
_____________
By 1938, Germany under Adolf Hitler had for some years been rearming
in defiance of its obligations under the Versailles treaty and other international
agreements. Yet even though Hitler in Mein Kampf had explicitly spelled
out the goals he was now preparing to pursue, scarcely anyone took him
seriously. To the imminent victims of the war he was soon to start, Hitler’s
book and his inflammatory speeches were nothing more than braggadocio or,
to use the more colorful word Hannah Arendt once applied to Adolf Eichmann,
rodomontade: the kind of red meat any politician might throw to his constituents
at home. Hitler might sound at times like a madman, but in reality he was
a shrewd operator with whom one could—in the notorious term coined by the
London Times—“do business.” The business that was done under this assumption
was the Munich Agreement of 1938, which the British Prime Minister Neville
Chamberlain declared had brought “peace in our time.”
It was thanks to Munich that “appeasement” became one of the dirtiest
words in the whole of our political vocabulary. Yet appeasement had always
been an important and entirely respectable tool of diplomacy, signifying
the avoidance of war through the alleviation of the other side’s grievances.
If Hitler had been what his eventual victims imagined he was—that is, a
conventional statesman pursuing limited aims and using the threat of war
only as a way of strengthening his bargaining position—it would indeed
have been possible to appease him and thereby to head off the outbreak
of another war.
But Hitler was not a conventional statesman and, although for tactical
reasons he would sometimes pretend otherwise, he did not have limited aims.
He was a revolutionary seeking to overturn the going international system
and to replace it with a new order dominated by Germany, which also meant
the political culture of Nazism. As such, he offered only two choices:
resistance or submission. Finding this reality unbearable, the world persuaded
itself that there was a way out, a third alternative, in negotiations.
But given Hitler’s objectives, and his barely concealed lust for war, negotiating
with him could not conceivably have led to peace. It could have had only
one outcome, which was to buy him more time to start a war under more favorable
conditions. As most historians now agree, if he had been taken at his own
word about his true intentions, he could have been stopped earlier and
defeated at an infinitely lower cost.
Which brings us back to Ahmadinejad. Like Hitler, he is a revolutionary
whose objective is to overturn the going international system and to replace
it in the fullness of time with a new order dominated by Iran and ruled
by the religio-political culture of Islamofascism. Like Hitler, too, he
is entirely open about his intentions, although—again like Hitler—he sometimes
pretends that he wants nothing more than his country’s just due. In the
case of Hitler in 1938, this pretense took the form of claiming that no
further demands would be made if sovereignty over the Sudetenland were
transferred from Czechoslovakia to Germany. In the case of Ahmadinejad,
the pretense takes the form of claiming that Iran is building nuclear facilities
only for peaceful purposes and not for the production of bombs.
But here we come upon an interesting difference between then and now.
Whereas in the late 1930’s almost everyone believed, or talked himself
into believing, that Hitler was telling the truth when he said he had no
further demands to make after Munich, no one believes that Ahmadinejad
is telling the truth when he says that Iran has no wish to develop a nuclear
arsenal. In addition, virtually everyone agrees that it would be best if
he were stopped, only not, God forbid, with military force—not now, and
not ever.
_____________
But if military force is ruled out, what is supposed to do the job?
Well, to begin with, there is that good old standby, diplomacy. And
so, for three-and-a-half years, even pre-dating the accession of Ahmadinejad
to the presidency, the diplomatic gavotte has been danced with Iran, in
negotiations whose carrot-and-stick details no one can remember—not even,
I suspect, the parties involved. But since, to say it again, Ahmadinejad
is a revolutionary with unlimited aims and not a statesman with whom we
can “do business,” all this negotiating has had the same result as Munich
had with Hitler. That is, it has bought the Iranians more time in which
they have moved closer and closer to developing nuclear weapons.
Then there are sanctions. As it happens, sanctions have very rarely
worked in the past. Worse yet, they have usually ended up hurting the hapless
people of the targeted country while leaving the leadership unscathed.
Nevertheless, much hope has been invested in them as a way of bringing
Ahmadinejad to heel. Yet thanks to the resistance of Russia and China,
both of which have reasons of their own to go easy on Iran, it has proved
enormously difficult for the Security Council to impose sanctions that
could even conceivably be effective. At first, the only measures to which
Russia and China would agree were much too limited even to bite. Then,
as Iran continued to defy Security Council resolutions and to block inspections
by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that it was bound by treaty
to permit, not even the Russians and the Chinese were able to hold out
against stronger sanctions. Once more, however, these have had little or
no effect on the progress Iran is making toward the development of a nuclear
arsenal. On the contrary: they, too, have bought the Iranians additional
time in which to move ahead.
Since hope springs eternal, some now believe that the answer lies in
more punishing sanctions. This time, however, their purpose would be not
to force Iran into compliance, but to provoke an internal uprising against
Ahmadinejad and the regime as a whole. Those who advocate this course tell
us that the “mullocracy” is very unpopular, especially with young people,
who make up a majority of Iran’s population. They tell us that these young
people would like nothing better than to get rid of the oppressive and
repressive and corrupt regime under which they now live and to replace
it with a democratic system. And they tell us, finally, that if Iran were
so transformed, we would have nothing to fear from it even if it were to
acquire nuclear weapons.
Once upon a time, under the influence of Bernard Lewis and others I
respect, I too subscribed to this school of thought. But after three years
and more of waiting for the insurrection they assured us back then was
on the verge of erupting, I have lost confidence in their prediction. Some
of them blame the Bush administration for not doing enough to encourage
an uprising, which is why they have now transferred their hopes to sanctions
that would inflict so much damage on the Iranian economy that the entire
populace would rise up against the rulers. Yet whether or not this might
happen under such circumstances, there is simply no chance of getting Russia
and China, or the Europeans for that matter, to agree to the kind of sanctions
that are the necessary precondition.
_____________
At the outset I stipulated that the weapons with which we are fighting
World War IV are not all military—that they also include economic, diplomatic,
and other nonmilitary instruments of power. In exerting pressure for reform
on countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia, these nonmilitary instruments
are the right ones to use. But it should be clear by now to any observer
not in denial that Iran is not such a country. As we know from Iran’s defiance
of the Security Council and the IAEA even while the United States has been
warning Ahmadinejad that “all options” remain on the table, ultimatums
and threats of force can no more stop him than negotiations and sanctions
have managed to do. Like them, all they accomplish is to buy him more time.
In short, the plain and brutal truth is that if Iran is to be prevented
from developing a nuclear arsenal, there is no alternative to the actual
use of military force—any more than there was an alternative to force if
Hitler was to be stopped in 1938.
Since a ground invasion of Iran must be ruled out for many different
reasons, the job would have to be done, if it is to be done at all, by
a campaign of air strikes. Furthermore, because Iran’s nuclear facilities
are dispersed, and because some of them are underground, many sorties and
bunker-busting munitions would be required. And because such a campaign
is beyond the capabilities of Israel, and the will, let alone the courage,
of any of our other allies, it could be carried out only by the United
States.* Even then, we would probably be unable to get at all the underground
facilities, which means that, if Iran were still intent on going nuclear,
it would not have to start over again from scratch. But a bombing campaign
would without question set back its nuclear program for years to come,
and might even lead to the overthrow of the mullahs.
The opponents of bombing—not just the usual suspects but many both
here and in Israel who have no illusions about the nature and intentions
and potential capabilities of the Iranian regime—disagree that it might
end in the overthrow of the mullocracy. On the contrary, they are certain
that all Iranians, even the democratic dissidents, would be impelled to
rally around the flag. And this is only one of the worst-case scenarios
they envisage. To wit: Iran would retaliate by increasing the trouble it
is already making for us in Iraq. It would attack Israel with missiles
armed with non-nuclear warheads but possibly containing biological and/or
chemical weapons. There would be a vast increase in the price of oil, with
catastrophic consequences for every economy in the world, very much including
our own. The worldwide outcry against the inevitable civilian casualties
would make the anti-Americanism of today look like a love-fest.
I readily admit that it would be foolish to discount any or all of
these scenarios. Each of them is, alas, only too plausible. Nevertheless,
there is a good response to them, and it is the one given by John McCain.
The only thing worse than bombing Iran, McCain has declared, is allowing
Iran to get the bomb.
And yet those of us who agree with McCain are left with the question
of whether there is still time. If we believe the Iranians, the answer
is no. In early April, at Iran’s Nuclear Day festivities, Ahmadinejad announced
that the point of no return in the nuclearization process had been reached.
If this is true, it means that Iran is only a small step away from producing
nuclear weapons. But even supposing that Ahmadinejad is bluffing, in order
to convince the world that it is already too late to stop him, how long
will it take before he actually turns out to have a winning hand?
If we believe the CIA, perhaps as much as ten years. But CIA estimates
have so often been wrong that they are hardly more credible than the boasts
of Ahmadinejad. Other estimates by other experts fall within the range
of a few months to six years. Which is to say that no one really knows.
And because no one really knows, the only prudent—indeed, the only responsible—course
is to assume that Ahmadinejad may not be bluffing, or may only be exaggerating
a bit, and to strike at him as soon as it is logistically possible.
_____________
In his 2002 State of the Union address, President Bush made a promise:
We’ll be deliberate, yet time is not on our side. I will not wait on
events, while dangers gather. I will not stand by, as peril draws closer
and closer. The United States of America will not permit the world’s most
dangerous regimes to threaten us with the world’s most destructive weapons.
In that speech, the President was referring to Iraq, but he has made
it clear on a number of subsequent occasions that the same principle applies
to Iran. Indeed, he has gone so far as to say that if we permit Iran to
build a nuclear arsenal, people 50 years from now will look back and wonder
how we of this generation could have allowed such a thing to happen, and
they will rightly judge us as harshly as we today judge the British and
the French for what they did and what they failed to do at Munich in 1938.
I find it hard to understand why George W. Bush would have put himself
so squarely in the dock of history on this issue if he were resigned to
leaving office with Iran in possession of nuclear weapons, or with the
ability to build them. Accordingly, my guess is that he intends, within
the next 21 months, to order air strikes against the Iranian nuclear facilities
from the three U.S. aircraft carriers already sitting nearby.
But if that is what he has in mind, why is he spending all this time
doing the diplomatic dance and wasting so much energy on getting the Russians
and the Chinese to sign on to sanctions? The reason, I suspect, is that—to
borrow a phrase from Robert Kagan—he has been “giving futility its chance.”
Not that this is necessarily a cynical ploy. For it may well be that he
has entertained the remote possibility of a diplomatic solution under which
Iran would follow the example of Libya in voluntarily giving up its nuclear
program. Besides, once having played out the diplomatic string, and thereby
having demonstrated that to him force is truly a last resort, Bush would
be in a stronger political position to endorse John McCain’s formula that
the only thing worse than bombing Iran would be allowing Iran to build
a nuclear bomb—and not just to endorse that assessment, but to act on it.
_____________
If this is what Bush intends to do, it goes, or should go, without saying
that his overriding purpose is to ensure the security of this country in
accordance with the vow he took upon becoming President, and in line with
his pledge not to stand by while one of the world’s most dangerous regimes
threatens us with one of the world’s most dangerous weapons.
But there is, it has been reported, another consideration that is driving
Bush. According to a recent news story in the New York Times, for example,
Bush has taken to heart what “[o]fficials from 21 governments in and around
the Middle East warned at a meeting of Arab leaders in March”—namely, “that
Iran’s drive for atomic technology could result in the beginning of ‘a
grave and destructive nuclear arms race in the region.’” Which is to say
that he fears that local resistance to Iran’s bid for hegemony in the greater
Middle East through the acquisition of nuclear weapons could have even
more dangerous consequences than a passive capitulation to that bid by
the Arab countries. For resistance would spell the doom of all efforts
to stop the spread of nuclear weapons, and it would vastly increase the
chances of their use.
I have no doubt that this ominous prospect figures prominently in the
President’s calculations. But it seems evident to me that the survival
of Israel, a country to which George W. Bush has been friendlier than any
President before him, is also of major concern to him—a concern fully coincident
with his worries over a Middle Eastern arms race.
Much of the world has greeted Ahmadinejad’s promise to wipe Israel
off the map with something close to insouciance. In fact, it could almost
be said of the Europeans that they have been more upset by Ahmadinejad’s
denial that a Holocaust took place 60 years ago than by his determination
to set off one of his own as soon as he acquires the means to do so. In
a number of European countries, Holocaust denial is a crime, and the European
Union only recently endorsed that position. Yet for all their retrospective
remorse over the wholesale slaughter of Jews back then, the Europeans seem
no readier to lift a finger to prevent a second Holocaust than they were
the first time around.
Not so George W. Bush, a man who knows evil when he sees it and who
has demonstrated an unfailingly courageous willingness to endure vilification
and contumely in setting his face against it. It now remains to be seen
whether this President, battered more mercilessly and with less justification
than any other in living memory, and weakened politically by the enemies
of his policy in the Middle East in general and Iraq in particular, will
find it possible to take the only action that can stop Iran from following
through on its evil intentions both toward us and toward Israel. As an
American and as a Jew, I pray with all my heart that he will.
_____________
Footnotes
* However, a new study by two members of the Security Studies Program
at MIT concludes that the Israeli Air Force “now possesses the capability
to destroy even well-hardened targets in Iran with some degree of confidence.”
The problem is that all of the many contingencies involved would have to
go right for such a mission to succeed
Russian version