Maof

Vol. 3, No. 7 January 29, 2003 • 26 Shevat 5763

On Wednesday, January 29, 2003, the JCPA and United Jewish Communities held a joint post-election conference call briefing with Professors Yaron Ezrachi and Asher Arian, Senior Fellows at the Israel Democracy Institute. The call was moderated by Stuart Schoffman,, Associate Editor and columnist of the Jerusalem Report Magazine and a Research Fellow at the Shalom Hartman Institute. The following are excerpts from their remarks.
Prof. Arian commented that the tone of this election was unexciting, and even dismal, as illustrated by the low voter turnout. He focused on three aspects of the election results: First, the election results confirmed the collapse of the Left. In the final tally, Labor won only 19 seats, reducing it to a medium-size party, and Meretz lost half of its seats, retaining only seven. The irony of the election results, Arian pointed out, is that all polls continue to indicate that Israelis believe in much of the message and the philosophy of the Left, but in the final analysis, they felt that they had to vote Likud.
Conversely, these elections also confirmed the strengthening of Likud and the Right wing. The Likud party grew from 19 seats in the Knesset to 37 seats. This is an unprecedented victory for any Israeli party. Arian pointed out however, that 37 seats is still less than one-third of the Knesset. Prime Minister Sharon will still have to put together a coalition in order to form a functional government.
Finally, Arian asserted that the election indicated the growing “disaffection” that Israelis are feeling toward their political system. The emergence of the Shinui party is one indication that Israelis are disaffected. Shinui, which garnered enormous attention during the campaign and won 15 Knesset seats, generated a primarily negative campaign against the ultra-orthodox parties and the current Israeli political scheme. Shinui’s message was absolute and uncompromising, with no indication of the typical political give-and-take – anything short of complete equality [between religious and secular] is not acceptable to them. This rigid stance, Arian noted, will make it difficult for them to find their way into a coalition-formulated government.
Another sign of the disaffection of the Israeli public was the poor voter turnout rate (both for Jews and Israeli Arabs), which was 68% -- the lowest in Israel’s history. The poor showing indicates that Israelis are giving up on the possibility of finding a solution to Israel’s political problems, as well as a lack of faith that the current political system can fulfill the demands of the public.
Prof. Yaron Ezrachi shed some light on the dramatic shift in the shape of this year’s political campaign compared to that of previous years. He said that until the end of the Barak administration, the focus of the political rhetoric and electioneering was on where the border of Israel should be, what to do with the settlements, and how much territory to sacrifice. The Left and the Right were divided, to varying degrees by this debate.
With the election of Sharon and the second intifada, and with Palestinian terrorism dramatically increased, the public debate shifted focus from “where to draw the lines” to how to cope with terror. A consensus developed amongst the Israeli public that the diplomatic option was frozen, and that an uncompromising military response was the only option available.
The debate between the Left and the Right on the settlement issue was muted by the unified outcry against Palestinian terror, and the urgent demand that it be stopped. Ezrachi asserted that the Israeli public sees little connection between government policy and national security. In his view, the election results indicate that Israelis are seeking a government that will meet their short-term and emotional needs, rather than seeking a long-term solution. In this way, he noted, Yassir Arafat has greatly shaped this election and the results.
Sharon is now faced with the challenge of forming a coalition government. In Ezrachi’s view, he will have to choose between quarrels with the Bush administration and the EU or quarrels with his own party. If Sharon chooses to ask Labor and Shinui to join his coalition, he will have to compromise along the lines of the Quartet’s “Roadmap,” negotiate with the Palestinians, and give up some of the settlements. If he does this however, the leadership of his own party will likely turn against him.
If he chooses to form a coalition with the more right wing and religious parties however, he will not be able to take the necessary steps to partner with the U.S. on the Roadmap. Ezrachi noted that Israel relies heavily on the U.S. for financial support and will need to work with the U.S. in the event of a war with Iraq.
Both Arian and Ezrachi predicted that Sharon will turn to the Right wing to form his coalition, and both agreed that the debate over how one defines a Jewish state will continue.
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