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WINSTON MID EAST ANALYSIS & COMMENTARY          February 1, 2009    NEW Email: Адрес электронной почты защищен от спам-ботов. Для просмотра адреса в вашем браузере должен быть включен Javascript. Please disseminate & re-post - with attribution. If you publish, send us a copy. Many of our articles appear the archives of & Outgoing mail is virus-checked. To be removed from this list, send your Email address

by Emanuel A. Winston, Mid East analyst & commentator

I wrote an article entitled "THE NEXT POLITICAL WAR IN ISRAEL" on December 13, 2008, wherein I examined the convenient timing of the IDF attack on Gaza in light of Israel's 8 years of "restraint". Clearly, it was no coincidence, since the Israeli elections were moved up to come soon. The trio of Ehud Olmert, Ehud Barak and Tzipi Livni wanted to look heroic to the voters and retain power.

Given that all three were on a short leash to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, they needed permission to slip that leash based upon the need to keep the Kadima Party in power. You can't give away a country without having friends on the inside of that government.

So Kadima was allowed to go to war but, not to win - only to create sufficient damage and stop before the Hamas enemy was finished. The Kadima three assumed they would look so heroic to the public they would easily be voted back into power.

Is it possible that Olmert's cease-fire was set just in time to allow longer range missile in from Iran so that Tel Aviv would be hit before elections so Kadima could cancel elections?

Of course, it was expected that they would complete the Faustian bargain with Rice and the U.S. State Department that included but, not limited to dividing Jerusalem, creating a second state by driving the Jews out of Judea, Samaria, the Jordan Valley, the Golan Heights and other benefits.

But, something went wrong. The Polls indicate that the Likud Party under Bibi Netanyahu will likely win the dominating numbers in the February 10th elections. What can Kadima do now? What tricks are left in their bag?

If they can manage a major suicide attack or a missile into Tel Aviv, Kadima would claim an emergency and have the accommodating Knesset call off the elections.

Olmert has already set the stage by announcing that he has instructed the Defense Minister Ehud Barak to prepare for an instant response to further attacks. But, he needs something newsworthy - like an explosion in Jerusalem or Tel Aviv, G-d forbid.

The Military would again be called into action to bomb targets further into Gaza. We all should understand that both Palestinian factions: Fatah and Hamas prefer Kadima in power. After all, Kadima with U.S. backing is far more dependable to give up territory than Likud.

So what will be the next trick of choice to delay the February 10th elections?

Whatever it is should happen in the next few days or a week at the most.

Perhaps nothing will happen but a lot of people have invested quite a bit in forcing Israel underwater to appease her enemies.

Russian version
An introduction to MAOF
Haim Goldman

Dear Friends,

Would you believe that the undersigned has anything in common with

-- Professor Victor Davis Hanson (Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University),
-- Dr Charles Krauthammer, (Washington Post, Time, The Weekly Standard),
-- Caroline Glick (Deputy Managing Editor of the Jerusalem Post),
-- Jonathan Tobin (Executive Editor of the Philadelphia Jewish Exponent).

Amazingly, the editors of the MAOF website decided that the missives of the undersigned are worthy of translation and posting along the articles written by these distinguished authors.

The first letter was published without the consent of the undersigned.
However, after thorough examination of the laudable attitude of MAOF and of the excellent contents of the website, the undersigned had most graciously granted his permission for publication of his missives in both English and Russian.

“Analytical Group MAOF” [1] is an organisation founded about ten years ago by Russian-speaking Jewish intellectuals. The attitude of MAOF is definitely pro-Zionist -- unambiguously and unapologetically.

One of MAOF’s primary purposes is providing information and analysis about Middle-Eastern and world affairs as well as about Israel’s history, values and dilemmas. In addition to extensive publication activity in various media, MAOF also organises excursions and seminars. While the vast majority of the contents of the MAOF website is in Russian, texts originally written in English are provided in the original [2] as well as in Russian.

There are arguably about 250 millions of Russian-speakers worldwide and many of them do not read English. The indisputable motivation for the author’s permission was to grant those millions of disadvantaged people the grand benefit of reading the author’s ruminations. If the author is ever maliciously accused that his tacit motivation for authorising the publication was his craving to be listed along with the above-mentioned distinguished writers, his plea will definitely be “nolo contendere”.

The editors of MAOF expressed their gratitude by granting the undersigned a privilege that no other author got – the opportunity to review and correct the Russian translation before publication. The original letters of the undersigned are at [3] and their Russian version is at [4]. At of today, only two letters are posted but several other letters are pending translation.

You are kindly ENCOURAGED TO RECOMMEND the MAOF website to your friends and colleagues worldwide, particularly those who speak Russian. Those who do not enjoy the benefit of proficiency in the exquisite Russian language can find many thought-provoking and inspiring articles about Middle-Eastern and world affairs in the English section [2].


Haim Goldman


[2] section.php3? sid=37&num=25
[3] authorg.php3? id=2107&type=a
[4] authorg.php3? id=2166&type=a