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The following excerpt from an August 26 Jerusalem Issue Brief was published by the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs (JCPA) and written by Eli Kazhdan, a JCPA senior researcher, and David Keyes, who is currently assisting former Ambassador Dore Gold at the JCPA.  The brief can be found in its entirety at www.JCPA.org.
 
Roadmap requirements have been categorically ignored both by the Palestinian Authority and the Quartet.  This was due partly to the fact that the hudna, a temporary truce offered by the terrorist organizations, never fulfilled the terms of the roadmap's cease-fire.
 
The Hudna Did Not Stop the Violence
Despite the outpouring of wrath and shock, last week’s suicide bus bombing in Jerusalem, which killed 21 worshippers (including six children) returning from the Western Wall, should have come as no surprise.  Looking back, it was inevitable, for it was only the latest in a series of Palestinian attacks initiated during the past several months.  Indeed, no fewer than 240 Palestinian terrorist attacks have taken place since June 29, 2003 -- the date the hudna was officially announced -- an average of four attacks per day.
 
With all the surrounding publicity, one might have thought that the hudna was one of the initial phases of the “performance-based roadmap to a two-state solution.”  It is not.  Indeed, the hudna, a temporary Islamic truce during which it is permissible to rebuild one's strength against an adversary, contradicts both the letter and the spirit of the roadmap.
 
The first sentence of Phase I of the roadmap unequivocally stipulates that the Palestinians are to “immediately undertake an unconditional cessation of violence.”  The hudna -- agreed upon by some in the Palestinian Authority, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad -- is a far cry from fulfilling the demand for an unconditional cessation of violence:  It is both circumscribed in time (three months) and contingent upon Israel's release of Palestinian prisoners….
 
The problem, however, is not purely one of semantics; the hudna simply did not stop the violence.  Gross Palestinian non-compliance with, and indeed diametric opposition to, three vital roadmap requirements, coupled with the Quartet's complete lack of any critical statements or effective action on security matters, have ensured the inevitability of continued Palestinian terror.
 
The roadmap imposes three pivotal requirements on the Palestinians, each of which have been categorically ignored both by the Palestinian Authority and the Quartet.
 
Requirement #1:  Sustained PA Operations to Confront Terrorists and Dismantle Their Capabilities
The roadmap specifies that the “rebuilt and refocused Palestinian Authority security apparatus begins sustained, targeted, and effective operations aimed at confronting all those engaged in terror, and dismantlement of terrorist capabilities and infrastructure.”
 
While this demand is explicitly clear, the Palestinian Authority has taken no meaningful steps to dismantle the terrorist infrastructure.  In fact, PA Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas has insisted that he would not dismantle the terrorist organizations.  “Cracking down on Hamas, Jihad, and the Palestinian organizations is not an option at all,” he said.  Muhammad Shehadeh, head of Islamic Jihad's armed wing in Bethlehem and an expert bomb-maker, confirmed, “We have an agreement and understandings [with the PA] that there would be no arrests of activists or raids on Islamic Jihad offices and institutions or confiscation of our money.”  Islamic Jihad leader Mohammed al-Hindi said that no one in his terrorist organization has been jailed or asked to disarm….
 
This failure was inevitable for another reason.  It became impossible to consolidate all Palestinian security organizations under one minister, as the roadmap required, when the Quartet agreed to a hybrid, two-headed Palestinian Authority in which Yasser Arafat and Mahmoud Abbas shared power.  Each controlled his own security services.  There could be no effective response to terrorism when each leader was competing with the other.  President Bush stated on June 24, 2002, that those tainted with terrorism should not be part of the Palestinian leadership -- meaning Arafat. The Quartet compromised Bush's original plan and kept Arafat in power, leading to the present crisis.
 
Requirement #2:  Confiscation of Illegal Weapons
On August 10, 2003, IDF Chief of Staff Ya'alon revealed that a truck loaded with Kassam rockets was allowed to pass through a Palestinian roadblock in Gaza.  Cars loaded with Islamic Jihad terrorists were also allowed through.  Smuggling illegal weapons above ground, however, is just the tip of the iceberg.  Some four to thirteen tunnels in the Rafah area, which straddles the thin strip of Israeli-controlled land on the Israel-Egypt border in Gaza, are operating at any given time, part of an extensive underground smuggling network for illegal weapons.  During the past year, IDF forces destroyed 25 such tunnels.  Recent PA actions against the tunnels, undertaken before Western media cameras, have been largely for show; instead of destroying the tunnels with explosives, the Palestinians temporarily close one end with sand and rocks.
 
A vast network of some 50,000 illegal arms, 24 bomb manufacturing plants, and 20 weapons smuggling enterprises is being systematically ignored by the PA, with the cease-fire allowing the terrorists time to regroup and plan new attacks.  Islamic Jihad leader al-Hindi explained, “It is natural that we strengthen ourselves during the hudna.”  Furthermore, al-Hindi said his group reached an agreement with Abbas that the PA would not confiscate weapons from Hamas and Islamic Jihad….
 
Meanwhile, Hamas has used the time to work toward the completion of 1,000 Kassam rockets, while seeking to increase their range.  On August 24, an improved Kassam rocket nearly reached the Israeli city of Ashkelon (pop. 110,000).
 
Requirement #3:  Arab States to End Funding of Terror Groups
The roadmap calls on Arab states to “cut off public and private funding and all other forms of support for groups supporting and engaging in violence and terror.” Yet funding and support from Arab states has significantly increased.
 
Saudi Arabia funds approximately 60% of Hamas's budget -- its share estimated to be $12-14 million per year. Notably, “the Saudi share of Hamas funding is growing, not declining,” according to Senate hearings on terrorist funding.
 
Iran is said to send at least $100 million to Hizballah annually, as well as Fajr-5 rockets.  Like Saudi Arabia, Iran's terror funding seems to be inversely proportional to Israeli peace efforts.  Recently, Iran increased its funding of Islamic Jihad by 75 percent.
 
Syria also continues to support Palestinian terror.  Hizballah, which has thousands of rockets aimed at northern Israel, routinely receives Katyusha rockets via Syria and reportedly has received other heavy weapons directly from Syria's own arsenal…In addition, the offices of Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine remain active in Syria, according to U.S. Secretary of State Collin Powell.
 
Egypt's compliance in smuggling weapons to the Palestinians is also a serious problem.  When the IDF blows up one of the Rafah smuggling tunnels, smoke is often seen rising from the Egyptian side, even from Egyptian army posts, as IDF Chief of Staff Ya'alon has reported.
 
…
 
The Future of the Roadmap
The Oslo process failed in part because the international community chose to ignore the Palestinian leadership's lack of compliance with its commitments.
 
Today, as in the past, the call for an end to Palestinian violence is unconditional and immediate.  Without total compliance with this demand, the roadmap becomes a meaningless document whose fate will be similar to that of the Oslo Accords, the Tenet Plan, the Mitchell Plan, and a wide variety of other statements of good intent of the past ten years….
 

August 27, 2003 • 29 Av, 5763
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