WASHINGTON
One year ago, Jews at their Seder meal were stunned to learn that Arab terrorists had massacred 29 of their brethren assembling for remembrance of the Israelites' escape from slavery. Fast-forward to this year's Passover: Jews recounting the exodus from Pharaoh's Egypt are reminded that 22 million Iraqis have just been freed from a modern tyrant's bondage.
Hope is now more realistic. "No doubt the American victory is a shock to Arab countries and opens new possibilities in the region," said Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, reached by telephone at his farm just before last night's Seder. "Because Bush showed real leadership and determination, there is more of a chance to do something. Arabs have less reason to believe that one can overcome Israel by force. Israel will make every effort to take advantage of a new situation that could lead to peace."
Because President Bush wants to reward Tony Blair of Britain for his war support, we can expect much chin-pulling in coming weeks about the Middle East "road map." This proposes specific withdrawals and freezes by Israel in exchange for promises by the Palestinians to try harder. The lopsided plan, pressed by pro-Palestinian Europeans and anti-Israel U.N. bureaucrats, will be issued next week as a reward to the Palestinian Legislative Council for approving a new prime minister.
Sharon, reacting mildly because he trusts Bush, prefers to interpret its timeline as a series of targets: "We will move from one phase to another only after accomplishment. Progress will be based on performance."
Much of that progress will depend on new Palestinian leadership. Unfortunately, Yasir Arafat, the major obstacle to peace, is still given succor by German and French politicians. "I'm sorry to see Europeans keep contact with Arafat," Sharon said. "That makes him believe he can still be an influence, which makes it harder to move forward."
The man Arafat reluctantly allowed to become prime minister is his longtime P.L.O. colleague, a taciturn politician known as Abu Mazen. "The question is, Will he be free from pressure from Arafat on important matters like security and finance?" We'll know in a few days, if the Palestinians elect him and, many Israelis hope, back him up with tough-minded men like Muhammad Dahlan and Salam Fayed.
"I'm not going to waste time. I'll invite Abu Mazen for a meeting shortly afterward," Sharon said. "We've met several times in recent years, at the prime minister's residence in Jerusalem, here at the farm, other places."
Can they do business together? "Look, Abu Mazen is a Palestinian. He's not a member of the Zionist movement. But I believe he is reasonable." After a long pause, Sharon added the potential new leader's most significant negotiating and governing asset: "Abu Mazen understands that you cannot break Israel by terror."
That's the key to getting restarted. But what if some terrorist tries to subvert talks by blowing up a bus? "We will take into consideration a 100 percent effort to stop it." How is that measured? "One, if they arrest, interrogate, try and punish the killers; two, if they dismantle Hamas, the Jihad, the Popular Front and the others; three, if they seize illegal weapons and hand them over to the U.S. for destruction; four, if they stop incitement and instead educate for peace. That's 100 percent effort."
That would eliminate the terrorists' power to derail negotiations. Sharon, at 75, with unprecedented political support and no interest in re-election, will take heat from supporters for giving up key villages in the disputed territories. But he believes that acceding to extreme Palestinians' demand for a "right of return" would mean "national suicide as a Jewish democratic state."
Syria? "Things will change in Damascus after Iraq," he said, but he sees no negotiations soon with Lebanon's occupier — "One at a time." Iran? "Even the moderates call for the destruction of Israel."
Sharon's focus is on "two peoples, two states." If Abu Mazen makes that 100 percent effort to end violence, Palestinians will see checkpoints removed, work permits issued and ultimately borders drawn that will be secure because they are not imposed.
At this post-Saddam Passover, two old adversaries earning each other's trust might just bring it off. Leave the door open for Elijah.
NYT 17.04.2003

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