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WINSTON MID EAST ANALYSIS & COMMENTARY March 16, 2003

Many of our articles are on the web sites at

http://www.gamla.org.il/english & http://www.freeman.org

BUSH ACCELERATES "ROAD MAP" by Emanuel A. Winston, a Middle East analyst & commentator

According to the NEW YORK TIMES (1), there is every indication that President George W. Bush is on the verge of the greatest double-cross since the Allied nations sold the Sudetenland to Adolph Hitler. Bush, in a frenzy to save Britain’s Prime Minister Tony Blair and himself, desperately needs a public relations counterbalance to the war against Iraq which cannot be stopped. Bush himself cannot be seen as the same failure as his father - now having pledged enormous physical assets in the Gulf.

Blair has apparently begged Bush for a life ring to save his plunging career. The only thing Bush had to offer was publically exposing the ’unmodified’ "Road Map", as a sop to the British Parliament and others. His excuse will be that Yassir Arafat has (finally) proposed Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) as a figurehead Prime Minister. Abu Mazen will have no real power but for the propaganda purposes that can be sold to the Media and the U.N. He will do to it to pull off the betrayal. Israel will be the bone thrown to the pack to stop their barking as each scrambles to get his share.

Prime Minister Ariel (Arik) Sharon thought he had a solid deal with Bush but he was mistaken. He thought that a ‘modified’ "Road Map" with Israel's 120 corrections included, would be presented to Israel and the world - but – only after the war against Iraq was over. Sharon "thought" Bush would keep his earlier pledge to mandate that Arafat’s Palestinian Authority would first (I repeat first) cease their terror, cease training their children to hate and kill Jews, cease anti-Israel propaganda, and a host of other agreements that, when acted upon - only then would the concept of another Arab Palestinian State begin to take effect.

As it seems to be turning out, Sharon will pretend that what he is being offered is exactly what he had in mind. The trade-off will be what his aide, Dov Weinglass negotiated - or rather had to accept for the needed financial aid to boost Israel’s sagging economy which has crashed due to Sharon and Silvan Shalom’s fumbling. As in the Oslo debate, the words will be there on paper but, as with all the Oslo agreements preceding, only Israel will be forced to fulfill her obligations, denials notwithstanding. The Arab Palestinians will only have to ‘promise’ to try. The words "even-handed" will be the oft-repeated mantra.

It appears that, when Sharon once said that Israel would not be another Sudetenland in order to pacify the Arabs and the other nations, he was wrong.

Sharon, a clever man but, in some ways unworldly, is about to find he has made Israel vulnerable in the extreme. Sharon bet all his chips on the word of one man when he should have also been solidifying his relations with the American Congress and the Christian Right Coalition which is Bush’s political base.

Israel is about to be sold to pay for Blair’s job, Bush’s war and the good will of Arab nations who will continue hating America and Israel - no matter how much Israel is pushed to the wall.

Bush may think that the American Congress, the American people and the Christian Coalition that has been his bedrock, will forget what he is about to do to Israel, but they will not. Bush will pull out all the propaganda stops to make the selling of Israel look like a great leap into peace but, few will believe the hype.

Yassir Arafat still rules but, even if he is killed off, another Arab state of Palestine will still become the most concentrated Arab nation of terror this old planet has ever known.

Sharon, Bush and Blair will be the co-godfathers for years of misery for the 3.5 to 5 million Arabs stuffed into a tiny, dysfunctional State, thereby causing the probable elimination of the Jewish State of Israel. These demographics are the greater threat to the only democratic state in the Middle East and America’s best and most reliable ally.

Those most pleased will be the "Quartet" (the E.U., the U.N., Russia and the U.S. State Department). France, Germany and China will be delighted and Tony Blair will get to keep his job for another few years. NATO, having drifted into irrelevance with the collapse of the Soviet Union, will be given the "make work" job of being the military force guarding the "New State of Arab Palestine" and thereby restraining Israel from responding to ongoing Terror attacks.

I believe that Bush, like his father, will be a one-term President. Sharon will retire to his farm and try to write such memoirs that will explain away his last years in office when he betrayed all of his principals.

The scum of this planet have been trying to eradicate the Jews for a few thousand years. It appears that, with the help of some weak Jewish leaders, they may very well succeed.

(In the meantime) URGENT SOLUTIONS on the IRAQI TRACK

If Saddam either attacks Israel pre-emptively, or in the first days of the coming war with Iraq s hit with chemical, biological weapons - or even conventional explosives - since no one will know if Saddam’s next missiles will be with the catastrophic WMD (Weapons of Mass Death). Arik Sharon should consider the following strategy of response:

1. Before Israel strikes back, release reports on the damage and human suffering which is taking place due to Saddam’s first strike. (Note! I realize this will negatively impact the civilian morale of the nation, however, there will be certain macabre benefits, as follows):

2. After Saddam’s first strike, Israel must strike back quickly with nuclear weapons across Iraq, to include Bagdad, Takrit (Saddam’s hometown) and the Iraqi military bases, bunkers and Saddam’s palaces (which probably conceal many stores of his WMD (Weapons of Mass Death). While the Arab world, America and the E.U. will object, it will be hard to make their case if, as I said earlier, an International news report is issued on the colossal damage done by Saddam’s expected first strike on Israel.

Israel’s retaliatory strike may not be liked but, it will be understood. It will shield Israel from efforts after the Iraqi war to punish Israel with various embargoes, trade restraints, imposition of foreign troops as in Bosnia, even the possible emplacement of a new NATO (without America) positioned as if they are a "peace-keeping" force or "international monitors" to allegedly "protect" the Arab Palestinians from Israel’s efforts to control the Arabs’ Terrorism.

3. Release videotapes of the damage done in Israel for International distribution. Insist that the foreign Media use their satellite feeds to transfer the scenes to American, European and Arabic networks.

If we must suffer the consequences of a first strike from Iraq, then make use of it. Israel was requested/ordered by America NOT to strike Iraq pre-emptively and to exercise their proverbial ‘restraint’, which Israel did religiously.

This should be repeated in nationally televised speeches by the Prime Minister - before their retaliatory strike(s). Hopefully, Bibi Netanyahu will be similarly urged to make the point that Israel - at great risk, restrained herself in deference to the requests by President Bush.

Israel would have paid the highest price any nation could be expected to pay in order to accommodate a friend and ally. Having been hit by an enemy with whom no one could reason, and having sustained unacceptable casualties, we have had no choice but to eliminate an enemy who has shown himself ready to destroy Israel and any other nations who stand in his way.

Message: "We regret that we were forced to make the choice between elimination of our own people and the destruction of Iraq."

This message should be repeated numerous times. International journalists should be briefed several times a week and, if necessary, be forced to transmit Israel’s message or be ejected from the country as supporters of hostile enemy actions. Israel’s future ‘vis a vis’ the U.N. and the E.U., America will be shaped by the thoughts and positions taken by Israel during the time of war.

1. "Bush Promises to Adopt Plan for Mideast" by Steven R. Weisman NEW YORK TIMES March 15, 2003

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