ASHINGTON, July 5 — While meeting with Palestinian leaders a week ago,
Condoleezza Rice, the national security adviser, listened intently to complaints
about the Israeli fence walling off Palestinians in the West Bank. The
next day, she raised objections to the fence with Prime Minister Ariel
Sharon.
American and Israeli officials say Mr. Sharon politely rebuffed Ms.
Rice, at least for now.
The exchange, administration officials say, illustrates their new willingness
to prod Israel and to get involved in the minutiae of the negotiations.
A senior official said that in fact more pressure on Israel to stop
construction of the fence is certain in coming weeks. "The very fact that
Condi Rice raised the issue of the fence with Sharon is significant," said
an administration official. "We will be back on this issue if things don't
improve."
The exchange between Ms. Rice and Mr. Sharon also shows, administration
officials say, a decision to direct pressure from both the White House
and the State Department, which had long been warring over Middle East
policy.
The week before Ms. Rice's visit, for example, Secretary of State Colin
L. Powell was there pressing for an Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip,
even to the point of discussing individual checkpoints on maps of the area.
Diplomats on all sides took note of the careful one-two punch delivered
by the two top aides to President Bush. "This is the World Wrestling Federation,
and we have a tag team on the Middle East," said a senior State Department
official. "For a long time, we've been undercut by the perception that
State, the Pentagon and the White House were not aligned. We've worked
hard to change that perception."
There was a time in the first months of 2001 when Mr. Bush, Ms. Rice
and Mr. Powell all disdained what they said was the obsessive entanglement
of the Clinton administration in Middle East negotiations. Administration
officials all refused appeals from countries in the region to get more
involved.
Now administration officials say their new muscular approach has paid
off with the first sign of progress in years — not simply the Israeli withdrawals
from Gaza and Bethlehem, but the first tentative cooperation in a long
time on security issues and what steps to take next.
American, European and Middle Eastern diplomats all say that the American
pressure has been cautious so far, and will have to become more assertive
in coming weeks.
The next test, they say, will be over the administration's willingness
to take further steps: stopping installation of the barrier fence, pulling
back more forces in the West Bank and dismantling, or at least freezing,
settlements there and in Gaza.
Israel is considered unlikely even to consider such steps without seeing
the Palestinians crack down first on Hamas and other militant groups —
steps that Washington, too, is demanding. The problem is how to arrange
further reciprocal steps, and in what sequence — and whether the United
States is willing to mediate or orchestrate each new move.
The latest phase of the Middle East peace efforts began in mid-March,
with Mr. Bush's formal adoption of the peace plan known as the "road map."
That plan, negotiated with Europe, the United Nations and Russia, calls
for reciprocal concessions by Israel and the Palestinians, leading to a
Palestinian state in three years. Mr. Bush resisted adopting it until pressure
mounted from Prime Minister Tony Blair of Britain on the eve of the Iraq
war.
"I saw Bush on TV in the Rose Garden and he looked like someone was
holding a gun to his head," said a diplomat in the Middle East, recalling
the announcement on March 14 on adopting the plan. "Now he's looking like
a seasoned negotiator."
To longtime observers of the Middle East negotiations, the most intriguing
aspect of the new internal alignment in the Bush administration is that
Mr. Bush has enlisted the White House in a swerve toward a greater willingness
to be tough toward Israel, as Ms. Rice was on the Israeli security fence.
How much that toughness will be sustained is a matter of conjecture right
now.
Until recently, it was the State Department — responding to the views
of European and Arab allies whose support was needed for the war with Iraq
— that favored seeking concessions from Israel even as the Palestinians
were pressed to stop their uprising and attacks.
After Sept. 11, 2001, Mr. Bush plunged into the volatile politics of
the Islamic world. Despite engaging with its leaders — whether in Pakistan,
Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt, or among the Palestinians — he was said
to ally himself more with Mr. Sharon and his supporters, including many
at the Pentagon and the office of Vice President Dick Cheney, who emphasize
cracking down on terrorism.
By mid-2002, in his most important speech on the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict, Mr. Bush declared himself in favor of a Palestinian state. But
he said the administration would no longer deal with Yasir Arafat, the
Palestinian leader, which delighted Mr. Sharon and his conservative supporters
in Israel and the United States.
Throughout this period, administration officials say, Secretary Powell
contended that while tough measures were needed on terrorism, the Israeli-Palestinian
crisis was political in nature and ultimately needed a political solution.
This view did not prevail until the Iraqi war and its aftermath, many
officials say, when Arab and European supporters of the war took the same
view and the installation of Mahmoud Abbas as prime minister made it possible
for the United States to resume its contacts with Palestinian leaders.
Along with the evolution of Mr. Bush's thinking has been the evolution
of the role played by Elliott Abrams, a conservative former Reagan administration
official recruited by Ms. Rice last year to direct Middle East affairs
at the National Security Council staff.
At first, the Abrams appointment stirred consternation at the State
Department. Mr. Abrams, a combative advocate of Israel's interests, had
after all opposed the Oslo peace efforts in the early 1990's, warning that
Mr. Arafat could not be trusted.
Mr. Abrams is still said to take Israel's side on such issues as the
need for a hard line on Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups, and
tough demands on the Palestinian leadership to stop the incitement of violence.
But earlier this year, Mr. Abrams was among those around Mr. Bush advocating
that Israel accept the road map peace plan, in the face of Israeli objections
and opposition by many American conservatives, including Tom DeLay, the
House majority leader, and several Jewish and evangelical Christian groups.
Mr. Abrams has also recently questioned the Israeli policy of proceeding
with the fence, officials and diplomats say, on the ground that it is provocative
to Palestinians.
A top official said Mr. Abrams now advocates direct economic aid to
the Palestinian Authority to shore up Mr. Abbas and Salam Fayyad, the Palestinian
finance minister.
Among other things, this change has dismayed some hard-line supporters
of Israel in the United States. A group of 25 Jewish leaders met with Ms.
Rice last Wednesday, and, while many were supportive, some of the conservatives
questioned her skeptically about the latest policies, in particular the
decision to provide more aid to the Palestinians.
Aides to Mr. Sharon in Israel say that, although Israel disagrees with
some recent American suggestions, such as the one to stop construction
of the fence, relations remain cordial.
Mr. Sharon has been described in the past as disdainful of the peace
plan, declaring it to be a product of the State Department and its thinking.
He and his aides raised nearly 100 objections to it, then reduced these
to 14 and then accepted the document with the vague promise that Israel's
concerns would be taken into account as the plan was carried out.
Early in the Bush administration, Mr. Sharon made a point of trying
to forge ties with Mr. Bush's conservative inner circle, particularly I.
Lewis Libby, Vice President Cheney's chief of staff.
In an unusual step, he circumvented the State Department by sending
a private emissary, Arie Genger, a former business partner, to the White
House but not the State Department, said several officials knowledgeable
about the subject. Now, they say, Mr. Genger has slipped into the background
but is still involved as a "back channel" to the administration, they say.
Israelis assert that, despite a difference of views on some matters,
the Bush administration and Mr. Sharon's team have close ties. "We don't
agree on everything, that's for sure," said an Israeli official. "But if
we disagree, we disagree, and we don't feel pressure on issues of our security."
As for the administration's micro-managing of the process, few experts
are surprised at such a turn of events.
"Guess what?" said Dennis Ross, the former Middle East negotiator in
the Clinton years. "Once you're into it, you have to get into the details.
You can't deal with the Middle East at the level of a slogan. You deal
with it in ways that reflect the reality on the ground."
NYT, 6.7.03
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